A new report from the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences (ICES) has estimated future risk of Canadians developing diabetes based on current levels of obesity and other diabetes risk factors in the population. This is the first time future risk has been assessed using these indicators. The report uses data collected in the 2007 Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS Cycle 4.1).
Findings from the report show that:
- Between 2007 and 2017, 1.9 million Canadians are predicted to develop diabetes, that is, about nine out of every 100 Canadians will be newly diagnosed with the disease.
- In 2007, the 10-year risk was lowest in Quebec, British Columbia and Canada’s urban regions.
- People who are obese have the highest individual diabetes risk; however, Canadians who are overweight have the greatest population risk.
- In total, 712,000 cases are predicted to develop in people who are overweight.
The authors recommend that health planners use the population baseline risk of developing diabetes to predict how many people will develop diabetes, determine who to target for prevention and estimate the potential benefit of different prevention strategies. Population baseline risk can then be combined with other information to estimate the feasibility, resource implications and real-life benefit of prevention strategies.
See “How Many Canadians Will Be Diagnosed with Diabetes between 2007 and 2017?: Assessing Population Risk,” ICES Investigative Report, June 2010, available at www.ices.on.ca.